Do Not Squander This Opportunity: Suggestion for Building a New Political Order in Tigray
To our Tigrayan brothers and sisters, the latest developments present not only another dramatic turn in Tigray’s long political crisis, but also a rare opportunity to determine what should come next.
With the latest developments dislodging the TPLF, which monopolised political power in Tigray and ultimately paralysed the region’s politics, there is now an opportunity to rebuild and transform the region. If handled wisely, this moment could create space for genuine political pluralism and potentially make Tigray a model of competitive regional democracy within the Ethiopian federation.
To seize this opportunity, I would suggest:
(1) Establish an inclusive interim administration that brings together talent, experience and wisdom from across Tigray’s political and social spectrum. It should have a clearly defined transitional mandate and create a credible path toward representative institutions, genuine political competition and elections rather than becoming another indefinite political arrangement.
(2) Develop a common roadmap for political transition, reconstruction and Tigray’s reintegration into the Ethiopian federation.
(3) Protect civilians and prevent revenge or collective punishment, regardless of political affiliation or perceived association with any side. A new political order cannot build legitimacy while communities fear retaliation, dispossession or abuse.
(4) Negotiate boldly and pragmatically with the federal government to secure Tigray’s fair share of federal resources and reconstruction assistance while restoring a functional political and constitutional relationship between Tigray and the federal government.
(5) Undertake a professionally managed DDR process for TPLF and TPF combatants once the fighting ends, with a strong emphasis on reintegration into civilian life or, where appropriate, legitimate security institutions. This should include negotiating the integration of a sufficient number of experienced and qualified fighters into federal security forces.
(6) Establish an intra-Tigray reconciliation process to address the deep political and social divisions created by years of conflict. A sustainable political transition will require rebuilding relationships among Tigrayans themselves, not simply changing who governs the region.
(7) Work with the federal and Amhara regional governments to facilitate the return and resettlement of IDPs and resolve territorial disputes through negotiation rather than renewed conflict.
(8) The federal government has an equally important responsibility not to repeat the mistakes of 2020. It should resist the temptation to build another regional administration around actors chosen primarily for their ties to Addis Ababa. Instead, it should create the political, security, and economic conditions in which Tigrayans can build a genuinely inclusive transitional arrangement.
The fall of one political order does not automatically produce a better one. Replacing TPLF dominance with another form of political monopoly, exclusion or externally constructed authority would only reproduce the underlying problem in a different form.
The real opportunity is therefore larger than changing who governs Tigray. It is an opportunity to move beyond a political system repeatedly shaped by monopoly, armed struggle and exclusion, and to build one in which different Tigrayan political voices can organise, compete and disagree without turning every struggle for political power into another struggle over the future of the region.
That is the opportunity before Tigray. Do not squander it.
